Due to mild winter weather and the continued dip in industrial production, gas prices are under pressure. As a result, gas stocks are well-filled providing a rosy starting situation for the start of the filling season. This is leading to calmness in the gas market, as evidenced by the minimal impact on the price due to the scaling down of Norwegian gas production. It is also noteworthy that the number of open speculative positions in the TTF market has increased sharply, with the net position close to zero. This Market Update also discusses the low gas price in the US, and why its impact in Europe is limited.
The oil price currently lacks a clear price trend. On the one hand, the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Red Sea are creating supply risks, creating a war premium on the Brent benchmark in particular and pushing the price slightly higher. At the same time, sentiment is depressed by disappointing macroeconomic data from the world’s two largest oil consumers, the US and China. For the US (and Europe), inflation is more persistent than expected, ruling out a rate cut in the short term. This depresses economic activity, and hence oil demand.