High winter gas demand in Europe, against a backdrop of global LNG scarcity, has already led to substantial withdrawals from gas reserves before the start of winter, especially in the Netherlands. This has significantly increased the likelihood of relatively low storage levels by the end of winter. The prospect of a low storage levels has caused the TTF contract for delivery in summer 2025 to be at a higher level than for delivery in the following winter. As a result, companies lack an incentive to fill gas stocks next summer. Furthermore, this also depends, among other things, on LNG demand from Asia and possible alternatives to Russian gas currently flowing through Ukraine.
OPEC+ appears to be heading for another postponement of the phase-out plan of the latest production cuts at its meeting on 5 December. The oil cartel’s waning market share also makes flooding the market with oil a possible risk scenario. The anticipated oversupply in the oil market is surrounded by some uncertainties, especially with Trump taking office in January 2025. Following this, we discuss the development of the EUR/USD, with economic developments, interest rate policy, and Trump underpinning the relatively weak euro.