In late April and early May, oil prices unexpectedly fell sharply after the market assessed the risk of further escalation of the tensions in the Middel East as low. Now the oil price has stabilised around USD 83 per barrel of Brent oil. This Market Update takes a detailed look at how expectations about global oil demand and macroeconomic figures impact the oil market. As markets react to deviations between actual figures and market expectations, sentiment plays a major role in this. Demand trends and expectations are important in the OPEC+ decision on production cuts, which is expected on 1 June.
The monthly TTF gas price contract is hovering around EUR 30/MWh. Norwegian gas supplies to Europe are again significantly higher than in recent weeks, although scheduled maintenance is due to take place again this week. Norway supplies about 30% of European gas demand, the risks of which are highlighted in this Market Update. In addition, having the US as the largest LNG supplier also brings risks. Finally, there are some points in the new negotiation agreement that could eventually affect the gas market.