After a brief upturn, downward price pressure has returned to the Dutch electricity market. The TTF gas price and weather conditions are the determining factors here. On the gas market, the mild winter weather and stable supply ensure relatively full gas stocks, and thus pressure on the price. The low impact of the outage of Norwegian production sites is indicative of the calmness in the gas market. With the gas price, demand and thus the price for coal also rose. Additional upward price pressure here came from new US sanctions on Russian coal.
The price of EU ETS allowances experienced a brief rebound simultaneously with the gas price, mainly due to additional gas demand and the entry of speculative market participants. After a failed test of the EUR 60/tonne price cap, market fundamentals, especially mild winter weather and low industrial production, are taking over again and putting pressure on EU ETS price. In addition, this Market Update looks at the expected production of renewable energy in the coming months, based on weather forecasts and growth in capacity. It also analyses why growth in this capacity is stalling. This is especially true for wind power, with interest rates playing an important role.