Market Update Electricity – French export restrictions boost European electricity prices

A higher gas price due to geopolitical tensions and less gas supply from Norway have a price driving effect on electricity prices. Nevertheless, the market currently seems to assess the risk of further escalation in the Middle East somewhat lower and gas imports from Norway are expected to pick up. Electricity prices in France show a surprisingly different pattern from the rest of north-western Europe. A drop in French electricity exports underlies this. The price of EU ETS allowances has recovered sharply in recent weeks. This seems mostly speculative-driven. There is a high correlation between the price of EU ETS and TTF gas prices. In this Market Update, we discuss the effects of fuel-switching and the EU ETS as a ‘sustainable’ hedge against inflation. 

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