Market update Electricity – Electricity prices at odds with EU ETS

The Dutch electricity prices have entered slightly calmer waters. Any direction – and hence price volatility – is mainly determined by changing weather conditions. Nevertheless, the general trend is sideways. The price of EU ETS allowances (active contract) reached a fresh record and, with a price of more than EUR 100/tonne, supports the development of greening the energy mix. Market expectations also point to a further increase in the price in the coming years. In line with gas prices, the prices of (thermal) coal have also fallen strongly in recent months. Nevertheless, coal prices in Europe are still three times higher than in 2021, and in Asia even four times higher. This makes the profitability of coal fired power plants deteriorate to the extent that it pays to run gas plants harder again. Expectations of drought in spring could again negatively affect electricity supply in Europe. For now, however, water resources in Norway have recovered to normal levels, so electricity exports to Europe should not be hampered.

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