While financial markets reacted firmly to increased geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, the impact on oil and gas markets remained rather limited. Although prices did rose, risk premiums remained pretty much unchanged at low levels. An indication that the price movements were mostly sentiment-driven, and that the risks of actual physical shortages were rated low.
Iran’s role has changed significantly in recent years as Russia has been exporting less gas and oil while sanctions against Iran have been less strictly enforced. The question is to what extent this will hold up. Other themes that could influence energy markets in the coming weeks are weather related events (especially gas markets) and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.