The electricity market (monthly contract) has been characterised by additional volatility in recent months. There has been a partial decoupling between the electricity price and the gas price. Coal plants, based on the clean dark and clean spark spread, have been more profitable than gas plants since November 2024. Given the high emission intensity of coal compared to gas, this results in upward pressure on the ETS price. Also in the rest of 2025, the clean dark & spark spreads are in favour of coal-fired electricity, allowing this upward pressure to continue.
Growth in solar PV generation capacity reached 3.4 GWp in 2024, according to Dutch New Energy Research. While this creates a larger (potential) supply of renewable electricity in the afternoon hours, a larger daily spread is not a given in the coming years. Finally, this Market Update looks at the impact of grid congestion. With an increase in renewable electricity generation and electrification of energy consumption, the electricity grid is becoming increasingly congested. This affects the competitive position of (industrial) companies in the Netherlands. In Germany and in France, the situation for businesses is more favourable.