Extra update – A world turned upside down: Lower ETS price pose risks for Dutch industry

Negotiations over the Spring Memorandum are intensifying, with significant demands clashing against limited budgetary resources. Meanwhile, Dutch industrial sectors—already grappling with severe economic challenges—are closely monitoring energy and climate policy developments.

The Dutch national carbon tax has long been a contentious issue for industry. Designed to accelerate sustainability efforts and help achieve 2030 climate goals, this levy faces skepticism about its actual effectiveness in reducing CO emissions. Simultaneously, it imposes substantial financial burdens on Dutch businesses.

Dutch climate policy—including the national CO tax—relies heavily on the assumption of rising EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) prices. However, this anticipated trend is far from guaranteed. Paradoxically, lower ETS prices could create significant (and underappreciated) risks to the competitiveness of Dutch industry.

In practice, the national carbon tax functions as a governmental hedge against climate target shortfalls under lower ETS prices. This raises critical questions about the policy’s wisdom in the current economic climate, particularly as industries bear the brunt of this risk premium.

With both climate objectives and industrial viability at stake, the government now faces a pivotal decision: whether to maintain or abolish this controversial tax.

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