We expect volatile wind power generation in Germany and throughout the region this weekend and into Monday, while consumption is also forecast to drop week on week on higher temperatures, Refinitiv analysts said.
Gas markets, weather forecasts, carbon allowances, French strikes and the water levels of some European rivers are on the radar for electricity prices in the coming period, said Hans van Cleef, head of energy and research strategy at research firm PZ.
German baseload for Monday TRDEBD3 rose to 169 euros ($184.70) per megawatt hour (MWh) by 1114 GMT, 57.1% above the price paid for Friday delivery.
In France, the equivalent contract TRDEBD3 rose 18.1% to 170 euros/MWh.
Daily wind power output in Germany was forecast to plummet on Monday to 4.5 gigawatts (GW), down 35.3 GW from the level expected on Friday, while that in France is projected to fall by 350 megawatts (MW) to 6 GW, Eikon data showed.
A 72-hour strike at French nuclear reactors and refineries is expected to start on Monday. A following strike has also been announced at EDF EDF.PA from Friday evening to Saturday evening.
French nuclear availability rose one percentage point to 79% of available capacity. POWER/FR
The outage at the 1.5 GW Chooz 1 nuclear reactor was extended by five weeks to April 4.
German power consumption was set to fall to 61.2 GW on Monday, down 860 MW from Friday, while demand in France is expected to drop by 3.2 GW to 59.5 GW.
Along the forwards curve, German baseload for 2024 delivery TRDEBYZ4 shed 0.3% to 179 euros/MWh.
The equivalent French contract TRFRBYZ4 was untraded after closing at 193 euros/MWh.
European CO2 allowances for December 2023 expiry CFI2Zc1 added 3% to stand at 95.80 euros a tonne.
Although short term gas prices have fallen sharply and are now back to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we expect energy prices to remain volatile and above historical levels, ratings agency Moody’s said in a report.