After the sudden drop in prices in early April, oil prices have stabilized again. The direction the price takes depends mainly on developments regarding U.S. trade tariffs and surprises in OPEC+ policy. Both factors have recently increased expectations regarding oversupply in the global oil market in 2025 and 2026. Here a distinction can be made between heavy and light oil. The heavy oil market is relatively tight, particularly as a result of global sanctions. For light oil, on the other hand, production has increased briskly, bringing average prices for both types closer together. This distinction is important for U.S. foreign strategy regarding Russia, Venezuela and Iran.
Chinese LNG imports are relatively low in 2025 due to a mild winter and low industrial gas demand, among other factors. Whether this remains the case depends on economic conditions and weather factors this summer. For now, low Chinese demand creates space for Europe in the global LNG market, where gas demand is actually high in the coming period. The summer-winter spread still provides minimal incentive for commercial players to fill gas reserves in Europe.