The price for the TTF monthly contract appears to be driven by expectations regarding the direction of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. For the gas price holds that a possible return of Russian pipeline gas will cause strong downward pressure, while the complete elimination of Russian gas imports (REPowerEU) will cause the opposite effect. The EU itself has active policies on the latter, where the return of Russian pipeline gas is not obvious for various reasons.
As for European gas storage for next winter, we see that there is still no economic incentive to fill stocks. Whereas the filling season normally starts around early April, delaying this reduces the time horizon to fill, resulting in possible upward price pressure.
Oil prices are trading within a relatively narrow range, which is surprising given the geopolitical turmoil around the world. Potential supply risks face the OPEC+ decision to start tapering production cuts. The potential effects of the peace talks and Trump’s policies may be dominant factors on the direction of the oil market.