Electricity prices recovered slightly after 2025 was characterised by a downward price trend. Once again, the slight recovery originated largely in the TTF gas market. The publication of the REPowerEU Roadmap – intended to completely phase out energy imports from Russia – was the main reason for the price recovery. Furthermore, electricity prices in north-west Europe benefited – via interconnection cables – from relatively full hydropower reservoirs in the Nordic countries. Due to maintenance on the NorNed cable, this effect is currently mainly indirect for the Netherlands.
The December EU ETS contract rose again to above EUR 70/tonne. Improved macroeconomic sentiment is the main reason for this. Speculative investors are seizing on this to expand their long positions. However, the question is how much upside price potential remains, given that the ETS market is fundamentally little changed from a month ago. In addition, the emissions trading system in the UK (UK ETS) has been on the rise since the beginning of the year. This is largely due to rumours of a link with the EU ETS. More clarity on this is expected at the EU-UK summit on 19 May. Ahead of this discussion, the market has already priced in a possible linkage, narrowing the spread between the two emissions trading systems.