With the publication of the KEV, it has become clear that the Netherlands is not on track to achieve the stated greenhouse gas reduction of 55% by 2030. Zooming in on the electricity sector, the development of renewable energy sources (solar and wind) stands out. The share of solar and wind in the electricity mix is growing rapidly in 2030 (65%) and 2035 (77%). This increases the number of times when supply exceeds demand.
This Extra update highlights the evolution of the electricity sector described by the KEV. Electricity prices will become increasingly lower in summer, while remaining at higher levels in winter. At times when not enough renewable electricity is produced, controllable power will be needed. This will be accompanied by extreme prices. In addition, the financial and political risk for commercial parties to hold controllable capacity – for example, in the form of (CO2-free) gas-fired power plants – could be too great, putting security of supply at risk. A capacity mechanism in the electricity market is an option to deal with these risks. New climate policy following the KEV should explicitly include security of supply and affordability to strengthen the policy.