Just before the summer recess of 2023, the Rutte IV cabinet fell. This was followed shortly after by the announcement that Mark Rutte would not continue as VVD list leader. With that, the fence seemed to be drawn. Within a short time Hugo de Jonge (CDA), Wopke Hoekstra (CDA), Sigrid Kaag (D66) and Carola Schouten (CU) also announced that they would be leaving politics. A real shift seems to be taking place in politics in The Hague. New list leaders are being put forward, PvdA and GroenLinks are going into the elections with one list and in the meantime there is much speculation about who our next prime minister will be.
What we do know is that the next elections to the House of Representatives in the Netherlands will take place on Wednesday, November 22, 2023. For relatively new parties, this will be a race against time. In a short time, all parties will have to prepare their candidate lists, appoint list leaders and launch a campaign. Newer parties will now have to accelerate to keep up with longer-standing parties, which tend to have their party apparatus in better order. For a party like BBB, a major post-election expansion is in the offing. That means the party must quickly look for candidates for the Lower House. BBB leader Caroline van der Plas says she is not worried about that and refers to the success BBB managed to achieve in a relatively short time in the last Provincial Council elections.
Also for MP Pieter Omtzigt, who is well in the polls with a targeted 27 seats, there is little time to dawdle. Omtzigt is currently still in the House of Representatives as a party-less one-man faction. So he will have to decide soon whether to join an existing party or enter the elections with a new party. Until recently, there was speculation that he would join BBB, but his spokesman announced that Omtzigt is not interested in this. He will not be joining the CDA either.
After Mark Rutte announced his departure, the VVD put outgoing Minister of Justice and Security Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius forward as list leader. This seems to go down well with the party's supporters. Yesilgöz's more right-wing profile and persistent character seem to fit well with the VVD supporters' desire to see the party act more decisively.
On the other side of the political spectrum, things are also happening. For example, PvdA and GroenLinks joined forces for an intensive political cooperation: with one list, one program and one prime ministerial candidate, they are going into the upcoming elections. 'A historic day', according to Klaver and Kuiken who see the path becoming clearer for a left-wing prime minister. That does mean there will be considerable negotiation in the coming period about the list of candidates and the list leadership. A number of names are already floating around when it comes to list leadership, such as that of PvdA European Commissioner Frans Timmermans or Amsterdam PvdA alderman Marjolein Moorman. Or will GroenLinks put someone else forward.
One thing is certain: in the midst of all these developments alternating at lightning speed, it is crucial to focus on what is going to happen in the coming period. That's why we'd like to explain to you what to expect.
Declaring Controversial
In the first instance, the House of Representatives will consider in the coming weeks which topics will still be debated until the new cabinet takes office. Some subjects will be declared controversial. If a subject is declared controversial, this means that the subject (in particular bills) will not appear on the parliamentary agenda until a new cabinet takes office.
In special procedural meetings, a list of topics to be declared controversial is proposed for each committee. This involves looking at parliamentary documents that have not yet been discussed, but are on the agenda for a committee debate, for example. These parliamentary documents are discussed rapidly and it is decided which topics will be declared controversial.
These special procedural meetings are scheduled for after the summer recess and will take place from September 5, 2023. After all committees have held these extra procedural meetings, the Clerk's Office will prepare a plenary list of all controversial topics. Fractions may subsequently make written proposals to amend that list. The House then votes on the integral list and proposed amendments in a plenary session. In principle, declaring topics controversial requires a simple majority, but practice shows that the substantial minority is also taken into account. The list of topics declared controversial is not static. Committees and groups can propose new topics, but also decide to revisit previously declared controversial topics.
European dossiers and Senate
There are a number of dossiers that continue regardless. The EU Council does not take into account the outgoing status of individual member states. European Directives have an implementation deadline that the Netherlands will have to continue to meet. The work of the Senate also continues. Although the Senate itself can decide to declare bills controversial, this is not customary given the constitutional role of the Senate. In the coming period, the Senate will decide on a number of politically sensitive files, such as the Temporary Climate Fund Act, the Transition Fund, and the phasing out of the balancing scheme for small-scale consumers. The subjects not declared controversial will, of course, follow the normal legislative route.
Budget 2024
For the budget, the outgoing administration is making "policy-poor" proposals. This means that the outgoing cabinet does not propose many new policies with financial consequences. The House, on the other hand, can make proposals. On certain topics, coalitions may be formed and amendments may be submitted to still make policy.
Elections
All this will eventually culminate in the November 2023 elections. Will this be the year of a political turnaround or will the VVD once again grab the reins? For now it is too early to make any statements on this, but we will continue to follow all developments closely.
