As a result of high gas stocks and mild weather, gas prices have fallen sharply since last summer. Nonetheless, gas prices are still three times higher than before 2021. The starting point for next winter is relatively favorable, but there are also quite a few risks lurking. It is not only the physical availability of LNG that is a concern – for instance US LNG exports – but the possible boost of competition from Asia also makes it uncertain whether European supplies can be brought up to par in time. Chinese economic growth plays a crucial role here. Oil prices have also fallen sharply in recent months. Here too, uncertainties play a role, mainly due to the ban of exports of Russian oil and oil products. We do not expect physical shortages in Northwest Europe, but price increases cannot be ruled out.